Anatomy of a Crisis: The Epstein Files

ANATOMY OF A CRISIS: Could the Epstein Files finally be the event that unravels Trump?

Trump’s playbook relies on brushing off threats to his Public Licence (legal legitimacy) by leaning on the strength of his Social and Popular Licences. As he once put it: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters.”

But the Epstein Files threat is structurally different.

It strikes first at his Social Licence - alienating his core stakeholder group, MAGA supporters, for whom exposing those implicated in the Files is central to the “drain the swamp” narrative.

In addition, by fuelling resentment among BOTH supporters AND detractors, it hits Trump’s Popular Licence at the same time.

With both informal licences weakened, the defensive focus on preserving his Public Licence - through courts, allies, and procedural manoeuvring - isn’t just strategic. It’s existential.

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